Amid reports of Britain overtaking France as Market Trend Europe’s largest stock market, following Emmanuel Macron’s recent decision to call a snap election in France, and the impending UK election on July 4th, economic policy and forecasts are taking center stage.1,2 With this in mind, experts at City Index have shared their economic market predictions for the second half of 2024.
EUR/USD
“Our forecasts suggest more aggressive interest rate cuts from the ECB than the Fed through the rest of 2024, potentially boosting EUR/USD. With central banks pivoting, traders are eyeing the relative pace of rate cuts between the Fed and ECB as a critical factor.”
GBP/USD
“For the rest of 2024, GBP/USD shows potential for Market Trend further gains, with the outlook shaped by the UK’s economic challenges, BoE’s interest rate policies, and potential political turbulence from UK and US elections.”
USD/JPY
“In a potential inversion of what we’ve seen in recent years, interest rate differentials could weigh on USD/JPY in latter half of 2024. The Federal Reserve’s dovish shift and the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance on rate hikes are key factors to watch, potentially leading to a moderate decline in USD/JPY.”
AUD/USD
“The second half of 2024 could see a modest rise in AUD/USD, bolstered by a dovish pivot from the Fed and a relative weakening of the US dollar. However, Australia’s reliance on exports, particularly to China, and mixed outlooks for commodities like copper, may cap the upside potential of the AUD.”
Indices
“2023 marked a banner year for US and German stocks, Market Trend setting new records amidst ongoing inflation battles. With rate cuts anticipated by the end of 2024, a further boost to equities and commodities is in play.”
Bitcoin
“2024 may be a new dawn for Bitcoin as it enters historically the most bullish period of its halving cycle. After a strong recovery in 2023, our analysts foresee potential surges ahead, eyeing critical resistance levels at $48,500 and $57,400, and key support around $30,000-$32,000.”
Gold
“Gold prices could be set to hit new highs in 2024, driven by a favourable Market Trend macroeconomic backdrop and technical signals. The Federal Reserve’s projected rate cuts could be a key catalyst for gold’s continued rise above the $2000 level.”
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Oil
“2024 brings a pivotal moment for oil prices, approaching key technical downtrend support. With production expected to outpace demand, the first half of the year may see a crucial point of exhaustion for oil prices.”
